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rKf's avatar

When I hear someone claim this or that system is our salvation, I immediately question his motives or his insight.

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Nick Palmer's avatar

Thanks, Michael for a well-needed breath of air. There’s a lot of hyperventilation these days. One of your implicit ideas – there are only tradeoffs, not decisions – shows the folly of Andreessen’s assertions. In the end, SCIENCE™ doesn’t answer big questions, it only details the tradeoffs. And even that it does only in part.

In this post I’ll steer clear of Paul Kingsnorth’s writing over the past three years in his “Machine” musings. While I find these compelling, to the point that I believe them to be fundamentally correct, I’ll not go down that road today. Suffice to say That Hideous Strength wisely anticipated today’s situation. Lewis shrewdly gives us neat examples of the different types of characters who are drawn to such ideas.

Please forgive my stream-of-inanity comments. Too many thoughts competing for limited “computing resources.”

As I’ve noted here before, human beings are no more computers than are they front-end loaders. Yes, we compute. And we dig, too. What people like Andreessen call AI is simply (!) exceptionally complex computing. Dangerously it’s so complex that it can become unpredictable in sometimes dangerous ways. While people like Andreessen adopt an I’m-just-much-smarter-than-you-so-shut-up posture, that’s what it is. They gin up ideas like “the coming singularity” to intimidate the masses. They may even believe those ideas themselves (see below).

First, AI is not a thing. It’s an umbrella term. Like “cancer” it covers an extraordinary range of different things. We’d be far better served by having a much better typology to describe each different manifestation. But the world’s Andreessens wouldn’t. There’s a great EconTalk podcast with Rodney Brooks, who helped found MIT’s AI Lab, from six or seven years ago. He deconstructs much of the hype.

Just as a robot need not be a humanoid machine, AI has all sorts of manifestations. Using this blanked term betrays a low-resolution understanding. It lets those of us who only know a little opine with seeming intelligence. It also lets those like Andreessen obfuscate and browbeat their critics.

This “AI-and-Singularity-ing” is akin to the wholly unprovable “Many Worlds Hypothesis.” It’s an agree-or-shut-up ploy.

Second, while we already “benefit” from AI, much of what is touted is much further away than we hear. When I attended college in the ‘70s, we all knew that fusion power was only a few decades away from commercial use. And where are those self-driving cars? They’ll arrive, but not on the timetables touted ten years ago.

Third, let’s turn to Andreessen’s optimism about managing the societal implications of AI. Since I’ve mentioned robots and science fiction, let’s consider vintage 50s and 60s sci fi – Isaac Asimov’s, I Robot. Asimov’s robots were indelibly programmed to follow The Three Laws of Robotics. Much of his writing highlighted how even these three simple rules created extremely disturbing problems and unresolvable contradictions.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we find that lawyers prove to be among the greatest impediments to Andreessen’s Utopia.

Finally, while I share your concerns about the centralization of power, I retain hope. I was listening to a podcast a month or so ago. The guest noted that Gutenberg’s printing press was quickly adopted by “the ruling class” to exercise greater control over society. That worked for decades. Eventually, however, it became the tool of widespread rebellion against those rulers. See, for example, Martin Luther. As a Roman Catholic I may have mixed feelings about the metaphor, but…

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